Industries That Win With Real Options
Any industry whose margins depend on 1–3 traded indices benefits from real options — just like renewables depend on power prices.
The Sweet Spot for Real Options
Industries where managers can time, size, switch, or stage investments based on market indices create massive option value. If your margins = output price − input costs − carbon, and you have flexibility in capex timing, CapexEdge finds 15-30% hidden NPV.
8 Sectors, €100B+ in Annual CAPEX
Automotive & Battery Supply Chain
Key Indices: LME metals (Al, Cu, steel), battery metals (Li, Ni, Co), EU ETS, power, FX
Options: EV line expansion/deferral, gigafactory staging, model-mix flexibility, PPA timing
Metals & Mining
Key Indices: LME metals, power (crucial for Al), EU ETS, coal/coke spreads
Options: Curtail/restart smelters, BF→EAF conversion, PPA timing, mothball value
Chemicals & Fertilizers
Key Indices: TTF gas, Brent/naphtha, ammonia/urea, EU ETS
Options: Feedstock switching, rate cuts vs shutdown, debottleneck timing
Cement, Glass, Ceramics
Key Indices: Power/gas, petcoke/coal, EU ETS
Options: Kiln outage timing, fuel switching, staged CCUS investment
Pulp, Paper & Packaging
Key Indices: Pulp (NBSK), power/gas, EU ETS, freight
Options: Grade switching, machine speed/idle, CHP investment timing
Transport: Airlines & Shipping
Key Indices: Jet fuel, bunker spreads, Baltic indices, EU ETS
Options: Fleet orders/deferrals, route flexibility, SAF timing, scrubber retrofits
Data Centers & HPC
Key Indices: Power prices, capacity prices, renewable certificates
Options: Site selection, PPA vs grid, battery arbitrage, phased buildout
Agri/Food Processing
Key Indices: Grains/oils (ICE/CBOT), sugar, dairy, power/gas
Options: Plant run/idle, product-mix switches, CHP/storage timing
Industry Option Kits — Plug & Play
Pre-built templates with canonical indices, calibrations, and models for your industry.
Automotive & Batteries Pack
- Indices: LME Al/Cu, steel HRC, Li/Ni/Co, power, ETS, FX
- Templates: Plant expansion, gigafactory phasing, supplier switch
- Models: GBM/OU with correlations, Bermudan LSM
- Outputs: Exercise boundaries vs metal basket prices
Metals Pack
- Indices: LME metal, power node prices, EU ETS
- Templates: Curtail/reactivate, PPA timing, EAF conversion
- Models: Spark spread options, mothball valuation
- Outputs: Margin-at-risk, VaR/CVaR, mothball option value
Chemicals Pack
- Indices: TTF, naphtha/Brent, ETS, ammonia/urea
- Templates: Feedstock switch, rate cuts, debottleneck stages
- Models: Crack spread options, switching boundaries
- Outputs: Run vs shut regions, turnaround timing value
Each pack includes Excel-compatible templates, calibrations, audit traces, and certification-ready calculation logs.
Get Your Industry PackWhy These Industries Work Like Power
Public Price Exposure
Few, public, hedgeable prices dominate the economics — power, gas, LME metals, ETS, jet fuel, freight. Just like power drives renewables.
Binary Decisions
Run/idle, retrofit/wait, order/defer create asymmetric payoffs with high option value. Flexibility in timing and sizing creates 15-30% hidden NPV.
Tractable Correlations
Correlations matter but are manageable — power-ETS, Li-Ni-Co, metal-power. Our calibration captures the dependencies that drive value.
Your Industry, Your Indices, Your Options
Get a pilot in 6-8 weeks. Upload your cashflows, we calibrate to your indices, deliver exercise heatmaps and audit-ready valuations.
Start Industry Pilot